Below 30-game minimum, metrics hidden until sample gate clears.
23 games analyzed over 4 seasonsUpdated Aug 22, 2026, 9:10 p.m.Compare
NCAA Basketball
Matt Rafferty
Game-Flow Manager · 23 games · 4 seasons
Low game-to-game volatility
Historically associated with slightly higher scoring (6.1 more points per game than the league average), above-average fouls volume (2.2 more fouls per game than the league average).
How games feel
Typical historical game environment associated with this official. Descriptive history only.
Slightly higher-scoring environment
Insufficient evidence
Games officiated by this official averaged 151.8 combined points, 6.1 more points per game than the league average.
League average 145.7 combined points
Above-average fouls volume
Insufficient evidence
Averaged 36 fouls per game (+2.2 vs league).
League average 33.8 fouls
Low game-to-game volatility
Insufficient evidence
Consistency score 8/10 on whistle volume across the scouting sample window.
Descriptive stability of whistle volume, not a market forecast
Multi-season sample on file
Insufficient evidence
Profile spans 4 seasons in this dataset (2022-23–2025-26).
Historical environment
Scoring, whistle, and stability context from this official's verified sample versus league averages. Descriptive history only. Window: 2021-2026.
League comparison
Combined score
Official 151.8·Baseline 145.7·+6.1 vs leagueper game
Whistle profile unavailable
Not enough verified games are available to compare this official reliably with the league.
Over-benchmark rate withheld unless verified closing-line provenance is available for this league.
Whistle detail
Stability
Sample size
23 games
Seasons on file
2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Consistency
8/10
Officiating style
Official Matt Rafferty profiles as a game-flow (high subjective ratio) over the last 20 games. Whistle volume stays relatively stable in high-stakes settings.
Straight-up and line-linked outcome history when provenance allows. Not a recommendation.
Not enough games for reliable metrics yet (23 logged). Check back after this official clears the sample gate.
Pressure
Late-game whistle tendency versus earlier periods. Zero on the scale is the neutral / no-shift anchor for this official (same whistle rate late as earlier), not a league average and not a betting recommendation.
Late-game whistle tendency
Neutral
Swallows whistleNeutral (0)Tightens up
Neutral leverage profile: late-period foul pace tracks early-period baselines in close games after intentional-foul filtering.
Tight-game proxy
Supporting evidence from close finishes in the verified sample.
Tight-game proxy
How Matt Rafferty compares in tight final-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores, not last-two-minute reports.
Close games (≤5 pt margin)
3 of 20 games match this window
Avg combined points
Tight-game avg
146
Season avg
151.8
Pressure impact
-5.8
Avg fouls
Tight-game avg
35
Season avg
36
Pressure impact
-1.0
Over rate
Tight-game avg
33.3%
Season avg
50.0%
Pressure impact
-16.7 pp
Over benchmark: 151.8 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 20 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
3 of 20 games match this window
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
146.3
Season avg
151.8
Pressure impact
-5.5
Avg fouls
Toss-up avg
37.3
Season avg
36
Pressure impact
+1.3
Over rate
Toss-up avg
33.3%
Season avg
50.0%
Pressure impact
-16.7 pp
Over benchmark: 151.8 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 20 total games in sample
Team effects versus baseline
Team performance comparisons are withheld until same-window team baselines clear sample gates. Raw records alone can overstate the official's relationship with strong or weak teams.
Career
Career evolution
Season timeline of archetype and late-game sensitivity, with detailed metrics below.
2025-26Insufficient sample0 games
2024-25Insufficient sample0 games
2023-24Insufficient sample0 games
2022-23Insufficient sample0 games
Season
Style bucket derived from procedural vs. subjective foul mix and game-flow impact. Helps frame whether this ref tends to let play breathe or enforce structure.
Foul Ratio
How much an official's whistle rate shifts in close, late-game situations compared with the rest of the game. Positive values suggest they tighten up under pressure.
1-10 rating of how predictable this official's whistle volume is game to game. Higher scores mean steadier pacing; lower scores flag more volatile totals markets.
2025-26
Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required)
2024-25
Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required)
2023-24
Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required)
2022-23
Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required)
Related officials
Explore officials who frequently work with this official or show similar historical officiating patterns.
Frequent crew partners
Officials who have appeared on the same crew most often in the available dataset.
23 games · 0-100 index where 50 marks league norm. Higher is not automatically better.
This officialLeague norm (50)
Run stoppages80 index
50
How often this crew whistles during opponent scoring runs.
Scoring pace80 index
50
Combined scoring in this crew's games versus league average.
Whistle mix65 index
50
Contact and administrative whistle share relative to league norms.
3 metrics excluded due to insufficient event data
Index scores computed from 20 logged games in analysis window
Preliminary fingerprint - sample still building toward the published gate.
Quick compare
How to read this profile
Scoring and foul totals come from verified game logs. Ref×team win-loss records come from Basketball-Reference. Team foul splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the home page.
Scores, fouls, and referee crews from ESPN (9885 games across 80 tracked programs, 6047 with sportsbook totals). Coverage: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26. Matrix: 4078/8349 ref×team pairs with 3+ games. 69 games skipped (no officials listed). 0 games skipped (outside live conference gate). Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.