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Jeff Triplette leans overs vs closing point totals
This page documents a NFL officiating research finding. Totals go overs 77. The analysis uses 2,026 games (Strong confidence). Expect descriptive historical stats with methodology links, not predictions or betting advice.
Interpretation: O/U ATS uses ESPN pickcenter or estimated closing totals where sportsbook data is unavailable. Min 30 decisive games required.
Totals go overs 77.4% (24-7) across 31 lined games.
- O/U ATS
- 24-7
- 77.4%
- Sample
- 31
- Min 30 games
- Edge vs 50%
- 27.4 pts
- Leans overs
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →