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3 findings ranked by effect size and sample size across 2024-08-02 – 2025-02-09. Descriptive historical tendencies, not betting advice.

How we rank findings →

NFL findings

3 patterns from 127 officials.

NFLTeam crewFinding 1

Strong

Rick Patterson, Sarah Thomas crew runs 18.7 points lower than members' other games

Why it matters: Crew dominance compares a recurring crew's pace to each member's non-crew baseline. Useful for spotting chemistry effects on scoring environment.

This 7-official crew averages 40.6 combined points across 34 games, -18.7 vs what those refs produce on other crews.

Crew avg total: 40.6; 34 games · 25 teams
Dominance delta: -18.7; vs members' other crews
Over benchmark: 29.4%; 48.8 points line

34 crew games · min 12 · 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26

NFLLeague trendFinding 2

Strong

Games-weighted scoring sits 7 pts under neutral

Why it matters: This measures historical scoring frequency vs a fixed benchmark, not sportsbook pricing. We only surface league skew when the games-weighted over rate is at least 4 pts from 50%.

92 of 127 officials (72%) trend under the 48.8 combined points benchmark; weighted over rate is 42.9% across 313 games.

Refs trending under: 92/127; 72% of pool
Weighted over rate: 42.9%; 50% = neutral baseline
Games analyzed: 313; 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26

127 refs · 313 games · espn data

NFLLeague trendFinding 3

Strong

2025-26 vs 2024-25: league scoring and whistle context

Why it matters: Year-over-year context from 3 seasons in data/baselines.json (313 total games). League-wide baselines, not ref-specific.

From 2024-25 to 2025-26, combined pts per game ticked up (+3.0 pts) while penalty minutes fell (-1.9 PIM).

2025-26 avg total: 48.8 points; 29 games
2024-25 avg total: 45.8 points; 245 games
YoY scoring change: +3.0; points

3 seasons · 313 games in baselines · computed from game logs