NBA ·
Every high-volume ref leans over the benchmark
This page documents a NBA officiating research finding. Among officials with 50+ games, 52 of 52 beat the 222-point benchmark in a majority of their own games, not that every game went over. The analysis uses 2,026 games (Strong confidence). Expect descriptive historical stats with methodology links, not predictions or betting advice.
Interpretation: Personal over rate counts how often each ref's games clear the benchmark. League-wide, roughly 69.8% of games in this pool finished over. The list includes Dannica Baroody, Marat Kogut, Brett Nansel, John Conley, Ray Acosta, Ben Taylor, James Williams, Justin Van Duyne and 44 more.
Among officials with 50+ games, 52 of 52 beat the 222-point benchmark in a majority of their own games, not that every game went over.
- Over refs
- 52/52
- 50+ games each
- Top over ref
- 73.9%
- Dannica Baroody · 372 games
- League benchmark
- 222
- Combined pts proxy
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →