Analytics and intelligence, bias modeling for the 3rd team on the field.
This page tracks multi-season NCAA Football scoring and flags thrown trends against league baselines. Figures come from 1,426 games with season scope controls below. Expect descriptive trend tables and narratives, not forecasts or picks.
This page summarizes historical referee patterns in NCAA Football games, including scoring, flags thrown, and how often games finished above a fixed benchmark. CFB = college football.
These are historical associations, not predictions. They do not show that an official caused the scoring or flags thrown differences. Not betting advice.
League context
points per game
-0.4 vs prior season
per game
points combined
Fixed reference for over/under rate
Recent high-confidence patterns
Scoring
Scoring delta vs avg
Games officiated by Ron Turner have averaged 4.5 more combined points than the league average.
Whistle
League scoring decreased by 0.4 pts year over year (2024-25 to 2025-26). Flags fell (-0.3 flags).
| Season | Games | Avg points | Avg flags |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 165 | 60.4 | 12.2 |
| 2021-22 | 245 | 56.5 | 12.2 |
| 2022-23 | 248 | 58.6 | 12 |
| 2023-24 | 260 | 54.5 | 11.7 |
| 2024-25 | 254 | 51.9 | 11.3 |
| 2025-26 |
Whistle delta vs avg
Games officiated by Michael Moten have averaged 4.7 more flags thrown than the league average.
Scoring
Scoring delta vs avg
Games officiated by Paul Myers have averaged 5.5 fewer combined points than the league average.
Whistle
Whistle delta vs avg
Games officiated by John Hayes have averaged 1.9 fewer flags thrown than the league average.
| 254 |
| 51.5 |
| 11 |