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NFL · Ref outlier
Derick Bowers leads the pool on under frequency
34.5% of Derick Bowers's 58 games finish under 43.3 combined points, 15.5 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
50+ game sample · 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27
- Over benchmark
- 34.5%
- 58 games
- Avg combined total
- 41.9
- -2.5 vs league
- Delta vs 50%
- 15.5 pts
- Leans under
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →