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NFL · League trend
Games-weighted scoring sits 7 pts under neutral
92 of 127 officials (72%) trend under the 48.8 combined points benchmark; weighted over rate is 42.9% across 313 games.
Why it matters: This measures historical scoring frequency vs a fixed benchmark, not sportsbook pricing. We only surface league skew when the games-weighted over rate is at least 4 pts from 50%.
127 refs · 313 games · espn data
- Refs trending under
- 92/127
- 72% of pool
- Weighted over rate
- 42.9%
- 50% = neutral baseline
- Games analyzed
- 313
- 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →