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NBA · Ref–team split
Aaron Smith's over rate swings by opponent
With Aaron Smith, 100.0% of Portland Trail Blazers games beat 222.4 combined points, Boston Celtics games only 25.0%.
Why it matters: The 75-point over-rate gap is historical scoring frequency vs a neutral 50% baseline, not sportsbook pricing.
Min 8 games per team · 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
- POR over 222.4
- 100.0%
- 11 games
- BOS over 222.4
- 25.0%
- 17 games
- Over-rate gap
- 75 pts
- vs 50% neutral baseline
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →