NFL insights

Tendency index, league-wide trends, and ranked dataset findings in one place.

Historical scoring and whistle tendencies across qualified officials. Descriptive associations with league baselines, not predictions. Sample: 175 officials (2021-09-10 – 2026-02-08).

Who moves the points?

The 140 officials with 30+ games, ranked by historical associations in their games.

Biggest scoring bump
Jerry Bergman
+3.0 G
He averages 3.0 more combined points than the league baseline in his games.
Highest historical over-rate vs baseline
Jeff Hutcheon
56.8%
Line benchmark is 43.3 combined points; he clears it more often than peers in this sample.
Heaviest flags ref
Ron Torbert
+4.2
He runs 4.2 flags thrown above average per game.

60 of 140 officials associate with higher scoring. 41 associate with lower totals. Numbers describe past games, not predictions for tonight.

#	Official					Signals	Yards Δ	Balance
1	Jerry Bergman#0	31	+3.0	-1.5	54.8%	2 notable	-	-
2	Aaron Santi#0	90	+2.6	+0.4	52.2%	1 notable	-	-
3	Maia Chaka#0	46	+2.5	-0.2	45.7%	3 notable	-	-
4	Brett Bergman#0	40	+2.3	+1.5	50.0%	1 notable	-	-
5	Dale Keller#0	50	+2.2	+0.6	50.0%	1 notable	-	-
6	Alex Moore#124	69	+2.0	+4.2	52.2%		+30.9	asymmetric
7	James Carter II#0	34	+2.0	+0.0	55.9%	1 notable	-	-
8	Todd Prukop#0	89	+2.0	+0.1	52.8%		-	-
9	Dominique Pender#0	89	+1.9	-0.4	52.8%	1 notable	-	-
10	Jimmy Buchanan#0	82	+1.9	-0.8	48.8%	1 notable	-	-
11	Tripp Sutter#0	87	+1.9	-0.7	51.7%		-	-
12	Perry Paganelli#0	38	+1.8	+0.5	47.4%	1 notable	-	-
13	John Jenkins#0	85	+1.7	-0.4	48.2%		-	-
14	Derek Anderson#20	32	+1.6	+1.6	46.9%	2 notable	-	-
15	Dana McKenzie#0	83	+1.5	+1.4	48.2%		-	-
16	Dave Hawkshaw#0	86	+1.5	-0.4	50.0%		-	-
17	Max Causey#0	69	+1.5	-1.0	55.1%		-	-
18	Jeff Hutcheon#0	37	+1.4	+0.1	56.8%	1 notable	-	-
19	Tab Slaughter#0	71	+1.3	-0.3	47.9%	1 notable	-	-
20	Danny Short#0	86	+1.2	+0.8	48.8%		-	-
21	Dyrol Prioleau#0	77	+1.2	-0.3	45.5%		-	-
22	Frank Steratore#0	54	+1.2	+0.6	51.9%		-	-
23	Jeff Lamberth#0	32	+1.2	-1.4	46.9%		-	-
24	Matt Edwards#0	81	+1.2	+0.3	48.1%		-	-
25	Alonzo Ramsey III#0	72	+1.1	-0.4	48.6%		-	-
26	Dino Paganelli#0	73	+1.1	-0.7	43.8%	1 notable	-	-
27	Mearl Robinson#0	89	+1.1	+0.6	55.1%		-	-
28	Mike Morton#0	59	+1.1	+1.1	49.2%		-	-
29	Brad Rogers#126	381	+1.0	+0.5	56.2%	2 notable	+5.5	asymmetric
30	Bryan Neale#92	277	+1.0	+3.7	56.0%	2 notable	-	-
31	Carl Paganelli#0	74	+1.0	+0.1	48.6%		-	-
32	Jerod Phillips#0	90	+1.0	-0.4	45.6%		-	-
33	Carl Cheffers#51	333	+0.9	+0.5	52.6%	2 notable	+5.5	asymmetric
34	Carl Johnson#101	327	+0.9	+3.7	55.4%	3 notable	-	-
35	Michael Dolce#0	31	+0.9	-1.2	41.9%	1 notable	-	-
36	Adrian Hill#29	614	+0.8	+0.8	54.7%	1 notable	+7.9	asymmetric
37	Julian Mapp#0	82	+0.8	+1.3	45.1%		-	-
38	Shawn Smith#14	489	+0.8	-0.5	53.6%	1 notable	-5.0	asymmetric
39	Allen Baynes#0	92	+0.7	-0.8	43.5%	2 notable	-	-
40	Greg Bradley#0	96	+0.7	+0.2	49.0%		-	-
41	Greg Wilson#0	87	+0.7	-0.2	46.0%		-	-
42	Ron Torbert#62	224	+0.7	+4.2	54.0%	1 notable	-	-
43	Tra Blake#3	566	+0.7	+3.9	52.7%	1 notable	-	-
44	David Oliver#0	85	+0.6	-0.1	51.8%		-	-
45	Mark Hittner#28	276	+0.6	+4.1	51.4%	1 notable	-	-
46	Anthony Jeffries#0	95	+0.5	+0.9	48.4%	1 notable	-	-
47	Bill Vinovich#52	236	+0.5	-0.9	53.8%	2 notable	-10.5	asymmetric
48	Clay Martin#19	314	+0.5	-0.2	52.5%	1 notable	+0.5	asymmetric
49	Clete Blakeman#34	453	+0.5	+0.6	50.3%	1 notable	+4.0	asymmetric
50	Craig Wrolstad#0	91	+0.5	-0.3	47.3%		-0.7	asymmetric
51	David Moore#124	454	+0.5	+3.9	52.0%	1 notable	-	-
52	Jerome Boger#23	328	+0.5	+3.9	51.8%	1 notable	-	-
53	John Hussey#35	223	+0.5	-1.2	52.0%	2 notable	-9.4	asymmetric
54	Shawn Hochuli#83	228	+0.5	+0.8	51.8%	1 notable	+10.3	asymmetric
55	Thomas Eaton#0	89	+0.5	+0.4	49.4%		-	-
56	Brad Allen#122	290	+0.4	-0.6	50.7%	1 notable	-10.3	asymmetric
57	Daniel Gallagher#0	89	+0.4	+0.9	44.9%		-	-
58	Greg Steed#0	90	+0.4	+0.9	46.7%		-	-
59	Jabir Walker#0	88	+0.4	-0.7	46.6%		-	-
60	Jay Bilbo#0	48	+0.4	-0.1	47.9%		-	-
61	Barry Anderson#20	520	+0.3	+4.0	50.4%	1 notable	-	-
62	Clay Reynard#0	79	+0.3	+1.1	39.2%	1 notable	-	-
63	Don Willard#0	98	+0.3	-0.1	54.1%	1 notable	-	-
64	Grantis Bell#0	92	+0.3	-0.8	48.9%		-	-
65	Land Clark#130	649	+0.3	+0.1	50.2%	1 notable	+0.3	asymmetric
66	Landry Malloy#116	513	+0.3	+3.9	49.5%	1 notable	-	-
67	Mark Perlman#0	52	+0.3	-1.9	44.2%	1 notable	-	-
68	Nathan Jones#0	87	+0.3	+0.2	47.1%	1 notable	-	-
69	Ronald Torbert#62	93	+0.3	+0.0	46.2%		-0.5	asymmetric
70	Scott Novak#1	335	+0.3	+0.0	50.4%	1 notable	-2.2	asymmetric
71	Sean Smith#14	378	+0.3	+4.1	48.7%	1 notable	-	-
72	Adrian Hill Jr#29	359	+0.2	+3.9	47.6%	1 notable	-	-
73	Alan Eck#76	461	+0.2	-0.9	48.6%	3 notable	-4.3	asymmetric
74	Dale Shaw#0	79	+0.2	-0.6	46.8%		-	-
75	Greg Yette#0	89	+0.2	+0.2	44.9%	1 notable	-	-
76	Anthony Flemming#0	82	+0.1	-0.3	47.6%	1 notable	-	-
77	Frank LeBlanc#0	86	+0.1	+0.5	43.0%	1 notable	-	-
78	Jeff Shears#0	71	+0.1	-0.1	47.9%		-	-
79	Terry Killens Jr.#29	94	+0.1	+1.2	45.7%		-	-
80	Tim Podraza#0	91	+0.1	-0.1	48.4%		-	-
81	Tom Stephan#0	79	+0.1	-0.2	48.1%		-	-
82	Fred Bryan#0	46	+0.0	-1.0	41.3%	2 notable	-	-
83	Jeff Seeman#0	83	+0.0	+0.4	45.8%		-	-
84	Rusty Baynes#0	89	+0.0	+0.0	46.1%		-	-
85	Scott Helverson#0	85	+0.0	+0.5	44.7%		-	-
86	Carl Cheffers Jr#58	292	-0.1	+0.2	50.3%	1 notable	+1.1	asymmetric
87	Duane Heydt#0	74	-0.1	-0.6	45.9%		-	-
88	Rich Martinez#0	88	-0.1	+0.9	45.5%		-	-
89	Terrence Miles#0	93	-0.1	+0.8	45.2%		-	-
90	Brandon Cruse#0	69	-0.2	-0.3	50.7%		-	-
91	James Coleman#0	86	-0.2	+0.6	41.9%	1 notable	-	-
92	Jeff Bergman#0	33	-0.2	+0.2	48.5%	1 notable	-	-
93	Jonah Monroe#0	82	-0.2	+0.2	45.1%		-	-
94	Kent Payne#0	100	-0.2	+0.4	46.0%		-	-
95	Paul King#0	84	-0.2	-0.3	46.4%		-	-
96	Boris Cheek#0	91	-0.3	+0.0	44.0%	2 notable	-	-
97	Eugene Hall#0	89	-0.3	+0.4	42.7%	2 notable	-	-
98	Keith Washington#0	91	-0.3	+0.0	45.1%		-	-
99	Tony Michalek#0	67	-0.3	-0.8	44.8%	2 notable	-	-
100	Roy Ellison#0	95	-0.4	+0.4	46.3%		-	-
101	Patrick Turner#0	92	-0.5	-0.1	48.9%		-	-
102	Tony Josselyn#0	88	-0.5	+0.1	47.7%		-	-
103	Joe Blubaugh#0	84	-0.6	-0.6	44.0%	2 notable	-	-
104	Terry Brown#0	80	-0.6	+0.1	50.0%		-	-
105	Brad Freeman#0	86	-0.7	-0.9	45.3%		-	-
106	Brian Sakowski#0	55	-0.7	-0.4	49.1%		-	-
107	Jim Quirk#0	83	-0.7	+0.6	44.6%		-	-
108	Sean Petty#0	54	-0.7	+1.4	40.7%	1 notable	-	-
109	Alex Kemp#0	85	-0.8	+0.7	42.4%	1 notable	+6.5	asymmetric
110	Mark Pellis#0	91	-0.8	-1.0	46.2%		-	-
111	Jim Mello#0	52	-0.9	-1.2	44.2%		-	-
112	Jimmy Russell#0	82	-0.9	-0.4	37.8%	2 notable	-	-
113	Steven Woods#0	90	-0.9	-0.2	42.2%	1 notable	-	-
114	Bruce Stritesky#0	46	-1.0	-0.5	45.7%	1 notable	-	-
115	Greg Meyer#0	84	-1.0	-0.8	41.7%	2 notable	-	-
116	Brian Bolinger#0	84	-1.1	+1.0	44.0%	1 notable	-	-
117	Mark Stewart#0	93	-1.1	+0.0	50.5%		-	-
118	Ryan Dickson#0	88	-1.1	+0.0	44.3%		-	-
119	Patrick Holt#0	91	-1.2	+0.1	39.6%	1 notable	-	-
120	Jason Ledet#0	56	-1.3	+0.9	39.3%	1 notable	-	-
121	Karina Tovar#0	36	-1.3	+1.5	41.7%	1 notable	-	-
122	Scott Campbell#0	51	-1.3	+1.0	43.1%	1 notable	-	-
123	Kevin Codey#0	92	-1.4	-0.4	41.3%	2 notable	-	-
124	Lo van Pham#0	70	-1.5	+0.6	41.4%	1 notable	-	-
125	Martin Hankins#0	52	-1.5	-0.2	44.2%	2 notable	-	-
126	Tom Hill#29	59	-1.5	+0.5	40.7%	1 notable	-	-
127	Derick Bowers#0	78	-1.6	+0.5	35.9%	2 notable	-	-
128	Trawick Boger#23	75	-1.6	+0.9	40.0%	2 notable	-	-
129	Rick Patterson#0	88	-1.8	-0.8	39.8%	1 notable	-	-
130	Brian Perry#0	36	-1.9	+0.5	38.9%	1 notable	-	-
131	David Meslow#0	78	-2.0	+0.3	41.0%	1 notable	-	-
132	Mike Carr#0	87	-2.0	-0.2	41.4%	1 notable	-	-
133	Keith Ferguson#0	31	-2.1	-1.0	45.2%	1 notable	-	-
134	Ramon George#0	52	-2.1	+0.4	34.6%	1 notable	-	-
135	Sarah Thomas#0	85	-2.4	-0.8	40.0%	2 notable	-	-
136	Chad Hill#29	89	-2.6	-0.4	39.3%	2 notable	-	-
137	Robin DeLorenzo#0	52	-3.2	-1.2	36.5%	4 notable	-	-
138	Tyree Walton#0	53	-3.3	-0.6	39.6%	3 notable	-	-
139	Michael Banks#0	33	-3.6	+0.2	36.4%	2 notable	-	-
140	Walter Flowers#0	57	-3.8	-1.1	36.8%	2 notable	-	-

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