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NBA · Scoring extreme
Competitive games lean over the 222.4-pts benchmark
Final margin ≤5 points: 56.1% beat 222.4 combined pts (4,476 games). All games: 50.1%.
Why it matters: Close-game proxy from game logs, not official last-two-minute data. Where spread lines are estimated, toss-up windows use the same proxy rules as profile pages.
4,476 close games · proxy window · 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
- Close-game over rate
- 56.1%
- 4,476 games
- Full-sample over rate
- 50.1%
- 6,150 games
- Avg combined total
- 223.8
- +1.5 vs 222.4 full avg
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →