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NHL · League trend
Games-weighted scoring sits 13 pts under neutral
Why it matters: Two different cuts of the same data: each ref's personal over rate asks whether they beat the 6.2 combined goals in most of their games; the league-wide share counts every game individually. A ref can lean over while many of their games still go under. This uses a fixed benchmark, not sportsbook pricing.
49 of 60 officials (82%) finish under the 6.2 combined goals line in a majority of their own games (personal over rate below 50%). Across all 681 games, 36.7% cleared the benchmark and 63.3% went under.
60 refs · 681 games · nhl-api data
- Refs mostly under
- 49/60
- Personal over rate < 50%
- Games over benchmark
- 36.7%
- 63.3% under · 50% = neutral
- Games analyzed
- 681
- 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →