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NHL · League trend
NHL games lean under the goal benchmark
3 of 45 officials (7%) trend under 6.2 combined goals more often than over. Only 41 refs run the other way.
Why it matters: League-wide over rate is 52.6% (games-weighted). In a neutral coin-flip world you'd expect ~50%; this sample tilts toward unders on totals.
45 refs · 6,560 games · seeded data
- Refs trending under
- 3/45
- 7% of pool
- Games over benchmark
- 52.6%
- Games-weighted · 50% = neutral
- Games analyzed
- 6,560
- 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Synthetic closing lines disclosed on seeded data — not betting advice.
- Full methodology →