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NBA · Ref–team split
JT Orr helps NYK on fouls — but they still lose
With JT Orr on New York Knicks games, opponents are whistled +3.1 more fouls per game. Yet New York Knicks win just 26.7%.
Why it matters: Foul edge doesn't always convert to wins or overs. These games average 220.4 combined points (53.3% over rate).
15 NYK games · min 8 game sample
- Foul edge
- +3.1
- NYK vs opponents
- Win rate
- 26.7%
- 15 games
- Over benchmark
- 53.3%
- Avg 220.4 combined pts
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Synthetic closing lines disclosed on seeded data — not betting advice.
- Full methodology →