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NHL · League trend
Most officials tilt over the goal benchmark
41 of 41 officials (100%) trend over 7.3 combined goals. Only 0 refs run the other way.
Why it matters: Games-weighted over rate is 61.2% across all ref workloads. This is era-wide scoring frequency in the dataset, not sportsbook pricing.
41 refs · 6,560 games · seeded data
- Refs trending over
- 41/41
- 100% of pool
- Weighted over rate
- 61.2%
- 50% = neutral baseline
- Games analyzed
- 6,560
- 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →