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NHL · Scoring extreme
Competitive games lean under the 7.3-goals benchmark
One-goal or OT games: 34.5% beat 7.3 combined goals (3,270 games). All games: 39.8%.
Why it matters: Close-game proxy from game logs, not official last-two-minute data. Where spread lines are estimated, toss-up windows use the same proxy rules as profile pages.
3,270 close games · proxy window · 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
- Close-game over rate
- 34.5%
- 3,270 games
- Full-sample over rate
- 39.8%
- 6,560 games
- Avg combined total
- 7.4
- +0.1 vs 7.2 full avg
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →