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EPL · Scoring extreme
Competitive games lean under the 2.5-goals benchmark
Why it matters: Close-game proxy from game logs, not official last-two-minute data. Where spread lines are estimated, toss-up windows use the same proxy rules as profile pages.
One-goal or OT games: 49.3% beat 2.5 combined goals (667 games). All games: 58.0%.
667 close games · proxy window · 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25
- Close-game over rate
- 49.3%
- 667 games
- Full-sample over rate
- 58.0%
- 1,140 games
- Avg combined total
- 2.5
- -0.5 vs 3.0 full avg
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →